Doping poses risk to athletes’ insurers

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Positive drug tests can do far more than destroy athletes’ careers; they can lead to giant insurance claims and legal actions that can drag on for decades. Recent news stories indicate that doping is now a serious financial and legal risk to both sponsors and insurers.

Doping is the use of banned performance-enhancing substances including drugs, supplements and human growth hormone to help athletes win. An unfolding scandal at the Summer Olympics demonstrates that doping is widespread in international competition.

The International Olympic Committee banned 118 Russian athletes; including the country’s entire track and field and weightlifting teams, from competition in Rio de Janeiro after evidence a state-sponsored doping program in Russia surfaced.

News reports indicate that fans and athletes from other nations were booing and heckling Russian and some Chinese athletes suspected of doping.

The changing attitude is driving an aggressive push against all forms of performance enhancement by organisations like the World Anti-Doping Agency.

Nor is the Olympics the only venue plagued by doping allegations. The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) barred three of its top stars; former heavy champion and professional wrestler Brock Lesnar, interim light heavyweight champion Jon Jones and middleweight contender Lyoto Machida, from competition because of doping in July.

Lesnar; one of the biggest names in the sport, was banned after traces of clomiphene; a fertility drug, were detected in his urine by the US Anti-Doping Agency after the 9 July UFC 300 pay per view, The Los Angeles Times reported. Clomiphene is used to increase strength by increasing testosterone levels in the blood.

Armstrong & Sharapova cases demonstrate financial risk

Insurers can be at risk from doping because of insured bonus payments made to athletes that become ineligible for competition. Disputes over such payments can lead to costly litigations that can drag on for years.

Armstrong winning the Tour de France
Armstrong winning the Tour de France

Acceptance Assurance; a US company, sued seven-time Tour de France winner Lance Armstrong to recover $3 million (£2.32 million) in performance bonuses after the cyclist’s doping was exposed, Insurance Journal reported. Armstrong eventually settled the case out of court to avoid testifying about his drug use under oath.

A dispute between Armstrong and SCA Promotions; a prize-insurance company, dragged on for 11 years from 2004 to 2015, USA Today reported. SCA sued Armstrong for $12 million (£9.26 million) in bonus money it had paid him for the 2002, 2003 and 2004 Tour de France Wins. He and the company settled in 2015 after an arbitration panel ordered the cyclist to pay $10 million (£7.72 million).

SCA had been forced to pay Armstrong $7.5 million (£5.79 million) in 2006 after he swore he had not doped. SCA had refused to pay a 2004 bonus because of doping allegations. The case was reopened in 2013 after Armstrong admitted to doping to American TV personality Oprah Winfrey.


 

Armstrong’s legal troubles are from over, the United States Department of Justice has sued him for $100 million (£77.20 million) because of an endorsement deal he had with the US Postal Service. The government is arguing that the cyclist defrauded it with “reverse false claims” by lying about his drug use.

US District Judge Christopher Cooper dismissed part of the government’s case against Armstrong on 7 March 2016, USA Today reported. Cooper’s ruling might protect athletes like Lesnar and tennis star Maria Sharapova from similar lawsuits in the future.

Sharapova tested positive for a banned drug called melomium in 2016. Her sponsors; including Nike, Head and Tag Heuer, could potentially sue using a disgrace clause in her sponsorship agreement, Jardine Lloyd Thompson Specialty entertainment and media head Edel Ryan told Insurance Post.

Sharapova's disappointment after positive drug tests
Sharapova’s disappointment after positive drug tests

That might affect Lesnar because he has a sponsorship deal with the American sandwich shop operator Jimmy John’s. Such arrangements are fairly rare in professional fighting; even though they are common in some other sports.

Such clauses require celebrities to pay back endorsement money if they commit illegal or unethical acts. Proving a disgrace clause violation can be difficult, because the litigant has to show that it suffered a financial loss because of the athlete’s activities.

Armstrong’s attorneys have argued that the value of the publicity his wins provided for the US Postal Service exceeded the moneys he was paid. Under that argument Armstrong fulfilled the contract he had signed with the organization.

One US judge; Cooper upheld Armstrong’s argument, another judge; Robert Wilkins, accepted the government’s claims. Cooper replaced Wilkins when he was promoted to a higher court.

Armstrong case could deter future litigation

Strangely enough the complexity and length of the Armstrong case might deter future doping litigation against athletes. The US Department of Justice is free to pursue the case because it has virtually unlimited resources provided by the taxpayers. Most insurers and sponsors lack the funds for years of litigation.

More likely outcomes will be settlements like those Armstrong worked out with SCA Promotions and Acceptance Assurance. That means athletes will have to pay back prize money, or take out specialized insurance policies that would repay sponsors or others in case of doping.

An interesting possibility here is that prize insurers and sponsors might start requiring athletes to undergo drug tests as part of their contracts. Such provisions might make it easier to recover funds from disgraced competitors.

The intriguing question that such requirements raise is: would athletes actually submit to such testing. Many professional athletes; including football, basketball and baseball players in the United States, are unionised. Required drug testing might lead to strikes and other labour actions on the part of athletes.

One reason why some sport enterprises have tried to avoid the issue of drug testing is the fear of athlete unionisation. Recent events show such fears are well founded.

On 11 August 2016, a group of UFC competitors announced that they were forming a union called the Professional Fighters Association, MMAMania reported. The announcement came the day after Lesnar, Jones and Machida had been cut from the UFC’s roster of active combatants.

Risk mitigation in doping cases will become far harder as popular outrage about the activity grows. Many corporations will be forced to reconsider their sponsorship of athletics as the risk of loss from doping grows.

An interesting opportunity for underwriters might be the creation of specialised policies that insure sponsors against losses caused by an athlete’s behaviour.

Such policies would solve one problem; but raise the potentially disruptive question of who would pay for such coverage the athlete or the sponsor?

The legal and financial risks created by doping extend far beyond competition and arguments about the integrity of sport. Insurers will need to find ways to mitigate these risks if professional sport is to remain a viable business.

Fosun-owned Specialty Insurer Ironshore Inc. files for IPO

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Ironshore Inc., the insurer purchased by Chinese conglomerate Fosun International Ltd last year, filed for an initial public offering (IPO) in the US after a ratings firm cited concerns about the parent firm’s financial capability.

Underwriters include Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, JP Morgan, and UBS. The company reported earnings of 41 cents a share on revenue of $1.65 billion (£1.25 billion) in 2015.

Founded in December 2006, Bermuda-based Ironshore has grown in part via international expansion and acquisitions. According to its filing, gross premiums increased from $383 million in 2008 to $2.16 billion last year.

An initial offering amount of $100 million was filed by the company which was used to evaluate fees that will change. The filing shows that Fosun will benefit from all the proceeds from the offering.

A review of Ironshore was announced by ratings firm A.M. Best in December and in June assigned a negative outlook on the company because of “the drag related to the credit profile and high debt leverage measures of Ironshore’s ultimate parent.” In the point of view of insurance companies, downgrades can make it harder to win customers.

Ratings are an important factor in the competitive position of insurance companies, and a downgrade of our financial strength ratings or a negative watch/outlook could severely limit or prevent us from writing new and renewal insurance policies,” the company said in the 22nd of July filing.

The insurer indicated that it will manage the business to keep its rating. Furthermore, the insurer offers specialty commercial coverage, giving protection to policyholders against environment and political risks and offering liability coverage to corporate executives and healthcare providers.

Ironshore said in March that an IPO was under consideration. Two months ago, Fosun International Ltd said an application was submitted to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange seeking support for a spinoff and separate listing of Ironshore.

In early 2015, a 20% stake was bought by Fosun in Ironshore for about $463.8 million and acquired the remaining 80% later in the year for about $1.8 billion.

Fosun Group, which is run by chairman and co-founder Guo Guangchang, has operations ranging from mining to real estate. The group bought Michigan-based Meadowbrook Insurance Group Inc. for about $433 million (£332 million) last year.

Fosun said in June that it willingly informed the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) about the Ironshore deal. Ironshore, on the other hand, said in the filing that it expects final results of the CFIUS review before its registration statement becomes effective.

Ironshore filed to offer up to $100 million of stock in the IPO but that is a placeholder amount likely to change. The joint book-running managers are Bank of America Corp’s Merrill Lynch, Citigroup Inc., J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and UBS.

Chinese moves increase war fears in South China Sea

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The risk of international conflict that could spread to other regions is growing in the South China Sea. A recent ruling by an international tribunal complicates the situation by making recent actions by China illegal.

The situation in the region is highly dangerous because it involves the People’s Republic of China and a key United States ally – the Philippines. The Chinese claim that they have the historic right to occupy the Spratly Islands; a series of reefs and landmasses northwest of the Philippines’ capital Manilla, because their fishermen have been visiting the archipelago for centuries.

The dispute that might spark international conflict

The current dispute involves Scarborough Shoal; a reef that Chinese forces seized in 2013. The Philippines; which also claims the Shoal, brought suit in the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague.

On 12 July, 2016, the Permanent Court ruled that China has no legal claim to the islands under the United Nations Convention on the Law of The Sea. The court also ruled that China had violated the Philippines’ sovereign rights which can serve as a pretext for war.

Spratly islands Outposts and facilities
Spratly islands Outposts and facilities – source amti.csis.org

The Chinese refused to participate in the hearing and rejected the claim that the Court has any legal authority over the matter. China’s President Xi Jinping responded to the ruling by reasserting claims to sovereignty over the region.

The United States is involved because it maintains bases in the Philippines; a former American colony, and its navy regularly patrols the South China Sea. Other nations like Vietnam; which has its own claims to the Spratly Islands, voiced approval of the Permanent Court’s ruling.

Vietnam’s neighbour Cambodia seems to be siding with China, its diplomats blocked the Association of Southeast Asian Nations or ASEAN; a regional alliance similar to NATO, from becoming involved in the matter.

Potential risks from the South China Sea conflict

The potential risks from a South China Sea Conflict are vast and need to be considered by all insurers. Some of the risks include:

Disruption of international shipping and trade. Goods and materials worth $5.3 trillion (£3.98 trillion) pass through the South China Sea each year. If such trade ceased it would lead to economic collapse in a number of countries including the People’s Republic, Australia and even the United States.

Conflict between the United States Navy; the world’s largest, and China’s growing People’s Liberation Army Navy. Both forces are equipped with the latest weaponry; including nuclear submarines, aircraft carriers and guided missile frigates.

Military defeat; or diplomatic humiliation, that might bring down the Chinese government. This is a likely scenario because the Chinese are heavily outnumbered and outgunned by the Americans. China only has one aircraft carrier; the United States has 10 Nimitz class supercarriers and 10 other carriers in its fleet, and two new carriers under construction. Such a defeat might lead to a totally new political order in China with worldwide consequences.

A long term dispute between the United States and China; including a massive military build-up. The situation would be similar to the chain of events that led to World War I. Those events included growing hostility between Britain and Germany and a massive naval build up.

Increasing hostility between the United States and China driven by jingoism and xenophobia. The BBC reported that anti-American protests took place at Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) franchises in China following the Permanent Court ruling. Even China’s state media rejected the protests as xenophobic and jingoistic.

In the United States Donald Trump; who has publicly called for a trade war with China, has captured the Republican Presidential nomination. Trump has attracted large crowds with speeches blaming China for average Americans’ economic problems.

Donald Trump Phoenix meeting
Photo credit: Gage Skidmore via Foter.com / CC BY-SA

The involvement of Russia in the conflict. Any potential dispute might be complicated by the involvement of two other major powers; Russia and China. An increasingly poor and weak Russia is becoming highly dependent on China as a market for its raw materials.

China is dependent on Russia for high tech weaponry; its only aircraft carrier was built there. Russian president Vladimir Putin has used the term “strategic partnership” to describe his relationship with China. World War I began because Germany came to the aid of its’ weak “strategic partner” Austria-Hungary in a conflict with Russia.

The potential involvement of India. Troops from the Indian Army and the People’s Liberation Army are facing off in the Himalayas. The Times of India reported that there was actually a scuffle between Indian soldiers and aggressive Chinese troops there on 15 June, 2016. China and India are deploying more troops and weapons to a border region both nations claim. China has a growing relationship with India’s historic enemy; Pakistan, and India seems to back the Philippines in the Spratly Islands dispute.

Potential conflict between nuclear powers. The United States, China, Russia, India and Pakistan all possess nuclear weapons. Russia maintains the world’s nuclear arsenal with 7,300 weapons, while United States possesses 7,300 according the Arms Control Association. In contrast China has just 260 nuclear devices.

The breakdown of international institutions that might lead to new conflicts and alliances. In a 6 July essay in The New York Review of Books financier George Soros wrote: “The world may break up into rival camps both financially and politically. China has begun to build a parallel set of financial institutions, including the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB); the Asian Bond Fund Initiative; the New Development Bank (formerly the BRICS Bank); and the Chiang Mai Initiative, which is an Asian regional multilateral arrangement to swap currencies.”

Soros believes new international cooperation is needed now to prevent world war.

The risks from the dispute in the South China Sea are mostly long term ones, but the dangers are real. The greatest risk is a long term political and military rivalry between the United States and China. If it is not contained such a rivalry has the potential to increase the risks of international conflict including war.

Insurers need to take note of these developments because of the vastly increased risks of military conflict and economic chaos that might result. A conflict or dispute that would dramatically change the world’s geopolitical landscape might be developing.

Ageas’ Back Me Up mobile-based insurance targets Millennials

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Insurance giant Ageas seeks to transform how Millennials protect their gadgets and other valued possessions with the launch of Back Me Up—a Tinder-inspired mobile app insurance that covers up to three items for £15 a month.

Designed with the young people in mind and developed together with a panel of Millennials, Back Me Up enables personalisation of policies.

The app allows users to insure three items they value most against accidental and malicious damage, loss and theft, with a maximum claim limit of £3,000 a month.

To insure an item, users just have to upload its photo onto the app and choose its description. They can even change items whenever they like with just a simple swipe.

Back Me Up does not bind users in an annual contract and users can opt in and out of the insurance whenever they want at no penalty cost and charges.

Regardless of whether users insure their phone or not, the app offers annual mobile phone screen replacement. If the phone is one of the insured items, users can avail of the screen repair more than once.

As part of the deal, Back Me Up offers worldwide travel cover for lost items, cancellations and medical emergencies, excluding claims due to pre-existing medical conditions.

It also offers up to £1,500 for replacement car or house keys and locks.

Another feature of Back Me Up is the bolt-ons, offering extra coverage for one more item.

This feature even offers help with landlord disputes through expert legal advice or legal indemnity of up to £50,000, and coverage for injuries and sports equipment and car breakdown.

The company took a cheeky approach to advertising by posting a number of videos – as the one below – depicting all sorts of troubles millennial might need back up (insurance) with.

Ageas hopes to tap into a huge market potential for flexible and relevant cover with Back Me Up.

According to research, 5 million of 18 to 34 years old do not own home contents cover, and 2.3 million travel overseas with no insurance. This age group consider mobile phones as their most valued possession, yet 48 percent is not insured, equating to a combined replacement cost of £3.1 billion.

Laptops and computers are the second most valued item, yet 44 percent are uninsured.

Rounding out the top three most valued items is a piece of clothing, of which 63 percent is uninsured.

People want to protect the things they value and the lifestyle they enjoy, and Back Me Up provides flexible, relevant cover that’s designed by the very people who will use it,” commented Paul Lynes, Managing Director at Back Me Up.

It’s an ‘all-in-one’ lifestyle product that puts people in control by letting them decide to insure what’s important to them, not the other way around.

There’s a huge gap in the market for an entirely new type of insurance, to meet the needs of young, independently-minded people. Until now, Millennials have had to engage with the insurance industry on its terms – but all that is now set to change,” he added.

FDIC hid possible China hack to protect top executive

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China likely launched a cyber-attack against the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) between 2010 and 2013, but employees masked the crime to protect its top executive, according to a July 13 report released by the US House Science, Space and Technology Committee.

The report came amid mounting concern on the susceptibility of the international banking system to cyber threats.

It is also the newest testament to the US government’s strong belief that China has breached its computers.

This is not the first time that the US government accused Beijing of cyber-attacks at federal agencies. In 2014, it blamed China for high-profile theft of over 22.1 million background check records from the Office of Personal Management.

News about a foreign government having compromised FDIC computers first surfaced in May.

But in the recent congressional report, an internal FDIC investigation pointed to the Chinese government as the mastermind of the cyber-attacks, which were concealed to protect Martin Gruenberg’s position.

According to the report, CIO Russell Pittman ordered FDIC employees to not divulge the hacking incidents to avoid jeopardizing Gruenberg’s promotion from vice chairman to chairman.

Gruenberg was nominated for chairmanship by President Barack Obama in 2011 and confirmed in 2012.

The security breaches were revealed to the Congress a year after.

Hackers used a backdoor malware and compromised 12 computers including those of former general counsel and former chief of staff, and 10 servers.

No specific evidence, however, was cited in the report.

It also remains unclear what type of data was stolen from the hacked computers.

But a source familiar with the internal investigation insinuated that intruders were likely looking for “economic intelligence,” said a Reuters news report.

The congressional report also pointed to a former FDIC employee who handed over a storage device with more than 70,000 documents of personally identifiable information and bank records.

It also accused FDIC of having created a toxic work environment to dissuade staffers from report hacks and for not having a sufficient computer security defence

The committee’s interim report sheds light on the FDIC’s lax cyber security efforts,” said Lamar Smith, a Republican representative from Texas and chairman of the House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space and Technology.

The FDIC’s intent to evade congressional oversight is a serious offense. Major improvements need to be made to the FDIC’s cyber security mechanisms.”

The congressional report comes during an ongoing extensive investigation, which has already included one hearing, seven transcribed interviews of FDIC employees, and review of about 15,000 documents produced by the regulator, the FDIC Inspector General, and whistleblowers.

The FDIC is an independent agency that preserves and promotes public confidence in the US financial system by insuring deposits in banks and thrift institutions for at least $250,000. It also identifies monitors and addresses risks to the deposit insurance funds and limits the effects of a failure of a bank or thrift institution on the economy and the financial system.

Insurers will cover Zika losses with conditions

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Marathon swimmers dread Rio’s polluted waters.

The US men and women basketball teams will stay on a docked cruise ship rather than brave the Spartan conditions of Rio’s athlete quarters.

US women football keeper Hope Solo has jokingly tweeted pictures of herself hooded in mosquito netting and holding a can of insect repellent. Northern Irish golfer Rory McIlroy cited Zika fears in refusing to compete.

Golfer Rory McIlroy hitting a ball
Photo credit: TourProGolfClubs via Foter.com / CC BY

Perhaps fittingly for these globally anxious times of Brexit, terrorism and Trump vs. Hillary, the Rio de Janeiro Olympics 2016 poses many risks for the athletes, fans, broadcasters and others who have travelled to the Brazilian metropolis on the sea.

Chief among the known perils is the mosquito-borne Zika virus, which can cause severe birth defects in the babies of infected pregnant women, and neurological troubles in adults.

Zika, first discovered in 1947, has broken out sporadically in Africa and South-East Asia over the ensuing decades, but mysteriously reached epidemic proportions in May 2015 in Brazil. Transmitted by mosquito bites and sexual intercourse, many infected people show no symptoms. Others can develop rash, joint paint, fever and conjunctivitis.

No one is more aware of all that can go wrong during the Rio games than the world’s insurers, but the industry says it still expects to provide coverage for Zika-related losses under certain circumstances. More than 2 billion USD in policies have been written to cover all types of risks in the games.

Of course, claims filed against communicable disease policies that were issued before Zika was a known peril in Brazil – namely about 14 months ago – would likely be paid, insurers have said.

But since the Brazilian outbreak, which sparked a travel warning by the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC), clients destined for Rio de Janeiro have faced significantly higher premiums for new communicable disease policies, or more recently, have been unable to buy policies at all.

Those who incur medical costs from the virus should find coverage in their existing health policies.

Another type of Zika-related loss not likely to be covered by policies are those suffered by broadcasters if television viewership – and with it, advert dollars – decline because high-profile athletes cite Zika fears in refusing to compete.

On the other hand, insurers could sustain losses if Zika becomes so disruptive during the Rio games that it causes events to be cancelled, rescheduled or significantly altered in some way – outcomes that are widely considered unlikely.

Obtaining payment for such claims will not be easy. Most insurers, consultants and brokers have said claims will only be paid if an established entity, such as the CDC or the World Health Organization, declares that an event should be moved or postponed because of Zika.

Travel insurance

Rio-bound Olympic fans were able to purchase travel insurance that will reimburse them for costs of pre-paid travel, lodging, and non-refundable tickets to events that are cancelled because of Zika.

However, those who decide not to attend the games simply because they fear the threat of Zika will not qualify for such reimbursements under standard policies, according to SquareMouth.com, a leading travel insurance comparison website.

Rio Games visitors who are forced to cut their trips short because they contracted the virus and developed related health problems are eligible for cost reimbursements.

Travel insurance policyholders who make Zika fear-based cancellations can obtain reimbursement for up to 75 per cent of those costs if they had paid for a Cancel for Any Reason upgrade, which usually increases a policy’s cost by about 40 per cent.

Despite the availability of the travel policies for the Rio games, and widespread fears of Zika and civil unrest, relatively few Americans bought policies, according to St. Petersburg, Florida-based SquareMouth. More Americans took out travel insurance policies two years ago when Brazil hosted the World Cup football tournament.

That drop in travel policy volume could be due to fewer people planning to make the trip to Rio. Almost two-thirds of Americans said they had no interest in attending the games because of the virus, according to a survey by travel insurance provider Allianz Global Assistance.

Fortunately for the global insurance market, calls to cancel or postpone the Rio Summer Games because of the Zika risks – calls that heightened in pitch and frequency in the weeks leading up to the games 5th  August start, ultimately went unheeded by the International Olympic Committee (IOC).

Towergate fined over failure to protect client money by FCA

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Towergate Underwriting Group Limited (Towergate), a UK-based insurance intermediary that holds both client and insurer money, has been fined by the country’s financial watchdog for failing to ring-fence its client and insurer money.

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) imposed a fine of more than £2.6 million on Towergate for racking up £12.6 million in deficits in its client and insurer money bank accounts.

The shortfall went unnoticed from 2005 to 2013 due to “systems and control weaknesses”, FCA said.

According to the regulator, Towergate failed to abide by the Client Asset Sourcebook (CASS) Rules and FCA’s Principles 3 and 10 of Business.

The main goal of CASS Rules is to adequately safeguard client money in the event of a company’s insolvency.

It requires companies to separate client money from company money in segregated client money bank accounts.

Principle 3 requires companies to organise and control their activities responsibly and effectively and have adequate risk management systems in place, while Principle 10 calls for adequate protection for clients’ assets.

FCA discovered that Towergate transferred a total of £10.5 million of client and insurer money to its parent company’s bank account, failing to consider the implications of these transfers.

Its client funds also accrued £1.45 million in interest payments, an amount that actually belonged to Towergate as per customer agreements.

The company first detected deficits in May 2013, but made necessary actions only until October and November. It also failed to report the issue immediately to the financial watchdog.

CASS Rules require any deficit to be corrected on the day it is noticed.

FCA also fined Towergate’s former Client Money Officer Timothy Philip and barred him from holding similar position.

The regulator said Phillip failed to exercise due skill, care and diligence in managing the business.

Despite the failings, there was no actual loss of money and the company was able to make good of the shortfall in time.

However, insurers were at high risk of losing money had Towergate went broke during that time, FCA said.

Both Towergate and Mr Philip qualified for a 30 percent off their fines as they agreed to settle at an early stage.

We have issued repeated warnings to the industry on the importance of complying with client money rules which are designed to ensure that client money is adequately protected in the event of a firm failing,” Mark Steward, Director of Enforcement and Market Oversight at the FCA, said in a news release.

There can be no excuses given these warnings and the stakes involved. In addition, the firm’s failings placed insurer money at risk of loss.

Senior management are ultimately responsible for ensuring that firms are following our rules and it is very clear that Mr Philip failed in that regard, falling well below the standards we require,” he added.

Early last year, Towergate was taken over by its creditors after almost running out of cash. Since then, it has made fundamental changes including hiring a new executive team.

AIG introduces Brexit Insurance

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AIG is betting that it can cash in on the political and legal uncertainty created by Brexit. American International Group has added Brexit coverage to its directors and officers, or D&O liability policies.

The coverage will reimburse legal costs associated for European Union citizens who have their United Kingdom residency status revoked; if and when Brexit becomes official, Business Insurance reported.

Another rider will cover legal costs for British subjects; whose permanent residency in an EU country is revoked after Brexit. If the legal challenge fails the coverage will cover “reasonable” relocation costs; including moving, school fees and travel fees.

The Brexit coverage will be added to all D&O policies offered through AIG’s UK subsidiary at no extra charge. The company is trying to offer a free perk in an attempt to drum up more customers. Both new and existing policyholders will apparently be eligible for the Brexit insurance.

AIG is not taking that Big of Risk

Interestingly enough; AIG is not taking a very big risk with the Brexit insurance, because the details of Britain’s EU exit have not been worked out. It is entirely possible that a new treaty; that preserves the current status of EU citizens in the UK and British subjects in the Union, will be negotiated.

Losing permanent residency because of Brexit is a purely hypothetical risk at the present time. That is why AIG is able to offer this coverage for free. If negotiations break down and it looks as if people might start losing permanent residency, AIG can start charging for the insurance at that time.

The greatest risk for AIG with this coverage is that all permanent residencies might be revoked at some point. That might happen if negotiations collapse; or one side tries to use permanent residency as a bargaining tactic.

The EU or UK might threaten to pull permanent residency status in order to force concessions out of the other side.

That seems unlikely because of the political fallout which would result from such a move. Although EU citizens’ permanent residency is on the bargaining table, Prime Minister Theresa May has announced that “it will be part of the negotiation,The Financial Times reported. May has not said if she would use permanent residency as a bargaining chip.

This means that any decision on permanent residency status is months or years away. The issue is further clouded by political opposition to Brexit in the UK and renewed calls for Scottish independence. The situation is complicated; because 62% of Scots voted against Brexit, while 52% of Britain’s population supported it.

Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and her government are reviewing options for their nation, The Guardian reported. The options include independence and EU membership; or a new undefined relationship with the UK.

Such uncertainty only increases the potential risks and the opportunity for new insurance products.

Global instability creates new opportunities for insurers

AIG has opened up a fascinating new market for insurance that might grow in coming years; instability insurance. There might be a growing demand for similar insurance products if global instability increases in the years ahead.

Growing distrust in both national and international institutions; and increasing economic insecurity are fuelling a wave of global instability.

Symptoms of this instability include the growing popularity of extremist politicians like the American Donald Trump, increasing terrorism and rising hostility to immigrants and international trade.

Adding to the instability is the growing fear of potential military conflict between the United States and the People’s Republic of China. China and the USA are facing off in the South China Sea; because the Chinese are trying to build bases in the Spratly Islands, a territory claimed by the Philippines a key American ally. Fears of a conflict between Russia and NATO have also been increasing, because of Vladimir Putin’s moves against the Ukraine.

US navy conducts live firing drill in South China Sea
By Voice of America via Wikimedia Commons

Another catalyst of instability is falling oil prices; which are undermining some governments including those in Russia, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. Each of those nations relies upon oil sales to finance government activities including social programs.

Falling oil prices have already devastated Venezuela’s economy, and forced Saudi Arabia to slash government spending and increase taxes.

Given this backdrop it is likely that we will see many more products like AIG’s Brexit coverage. The major markets for such instability insurance will be wealthy individuals and large corporations and their executives.

Multinational companies like AIG; and the insurance syndicates at Lloyd’s of London, will be well placed to take advantage of this opportunity.

Fairfax acquires Zurich’s South Africa and Botswana insurance operations

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Fairfax Financial Holdings recently announced that it has entered into an agreement with Zurich Insurance Company to acquire 100% of its South African and Botswana operations for an undisclosed amount. The announcement ended speculation that Zurich’s Swiss parent has been planning to exit South Africa.

Zurich said in a statement: “At the group’s Investor Day in May 2015, Zurich stated that reshaping its geographic footprint would be one of its highest priorities over the next two years as it seeks to build a more sustainable business while also improving overall profitability.

Zurich-South-Africa-Offices

Zurich SA delisted from the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in September 2015 and became a wholly owned subsidiary of Zurich Insurance Group, which acquired the remaining 15% free-float it did not already own.

While South Africa and Botswana remain attractive markets, a comprehensive assessment found that there was limited scope for Zurich to achieve an operating scale that warranted continued investment,” the insurance group said.

The acquisition is the ideal outcome for our customers, our employees, the group and the insurance markets in South Africa and Botswana,” remarked Zurich SA CEO Edwyn O’Neill.

Selecting Fairfax as our acquirer allows us to continue to run the business with a strong local focus, while enjoying the backing and guidance of a global sector expert,” O’Neill added.

The proposed acquisition of Zurich Insurance Company South Africa Limited (ZICSA) “represents an expansion of Fairfax’s commercial insurance presence in Africa and follows its purchase of a 7.15% stake in Africa Re in 2015,” Fairfax stated July 6 in a release.

Africa is a continent that represents a long-term growth opportunity for Fairfax, but where we have traditionally done little primary commercial insurance business. This acquisition represents a key step in expanding our presence in this important market,” said Prem Watsa, chairman and CEO of Fairfax.

It [Zurich Insurance Company South Africa] is a high-quality and well-known regional business, with an outstanding management team led by Edwyn O’Neill,” Watsa said, referring to both the SA and Botswana businesses.

The 100% agreement is expected to close by the end of the year, pending various regulatory approvals. While the value of the deal has not yet been disclosed, the net asset value of the combined South African and Botswana business is estimated at some R1.8 billion (£97.3 million).

Fairfax is a holding company which, through its subsidiaries, is engaged in property and casualty insurance and reinsurance and investment management.

Fairfax also has holdings outside of the insurance industry, including retailers William Ashley China, Kitchen Stuff and Sporting Life. Other holdings include The Keg restaurant chain plus a majority voting interest in Cara Operations, owner of restaurants such as Swiss Chalet, Harvey’s, Milestones, Montana’s, Kelsey’s and East Side Mario’s.

Mounting student loans debt creating an economic risk

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Each new student loan issued launches another person toward learning, self-discovery and a career.

Unfortunately, each new loan also triggers what many observers warn is another tick of the student debt time bomb.

Others liken swelling student loan debt to a bubble that could burst at any moment.

Whatever the analogy, it’s easy to see why experts are concerned. As the United Kingdom has reduced its subsidies for tuition, student loan lending has nearly doubled over the past four years, jumping from about £6 billion in 2011-12 to £11.8 billion ($16 billion) in 2015-16, according to the Student Loans Company.

That brought the total U.K. student loan balance up to £76.3 billion in 2015-16, an 18-percent increase from 2014-15.

SLC-Total amount lent in financial years 2011-12 to 2015-16
SLC-Total amount lent in financial years 2011-12 to 2015-16

A growing number of students are not repaying their loans, a truth that threatens to leave the government high and dry. After 30 years, the loans are written off.

Student loans debt has long been mounting but a big change in how the United Kingdom calculates interest, effective in 2013, has created much of the problem. Instead of paying just 1.5 per cent interest as they had been charged, student loan borrowers since autumn 2013 have been paying a rate equal to the Retail Prices Index plus 3 per cent – a total rate around 6.3 percent.

Only about 15 percent of students are likely to repay their loans from income alone

Under the current rates, because of compounding interest, only about 15 percent of students are likely to repay their loans from income alone, Tonbridge School researcher Dr Mike Clugston has told The Mail.

That is considerably worse than the 40 percent of loans the government initially projected will be repaid, an alarming figure in itself.

So, what’s the risk? Can students just keep piling up loan debt forever?

For one thing, Millennials, or those aged 18 to 34, are having a harder time than previous generations buying homes, partly because of their student loan debt. Graduates in the UK must start making repayments when their incomes reach £21,000 which equal to 9 per cent of their income above £21,000.

While most graduates will never fully pay back their loans, the 30 years of repayments they must make effectively constitute a tax. That millstone around their necks makes it harder for them to get on the housing ladder.

Another reason to worry about the new trends in student lending is the effect they will have on government coffers. When the government decided to allow U.K. universities to triple their tuition from £3,000 per year to £9,000 per year, despite heated student protests, it projected the new system would cost less as long as at least 48.6 percent of loans are repaid. But as we’ve discussed, analysts say the government has been far too optimistic with its projections.

As precarious as the situation might seem, the U.K. government is at less risk of students failing to pay back their loans than their counterparts across the pond. A major reason lies in how the two countries differ in their collection systems. U.K. borrowers typically have their repayments withdrawn directly from their payroll, while Americans usually make loan payments on their own.