Two imperatives to prevent crypto-exchanges from getting hacked

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Hacks of cryptocurrency exchanges in the first half of 2018 led to losses of over $770 million (£594 million) highlighting the continued vulnerability of these platforms, which need to find imperatives to establish trust with their customers and the future of the technology.

Despite the underlying security of many of the currencies themselves, investors are learning painful lessons when it comes to the stability and security of exchanges and the associated tools and services.

Exchanges and digital wallets for the storage and transfer of cryptocurrencies quickly sprang up following the release of Bitcoin in 2009, but users were faced with three significant challenges from the outset: malicious attacks, technical shortfalls and fraud.

As Bitcoin approaches its 10th birthday, recent losses highlight that these three issues remain unresolved, starkly underlined by Japanese exchange Coincheck $535 million loss in January 2018.

2018 echoes 2014

January’s hack of the Coincheck exchange was the biggest exchange loss since the $450 million hack of the MT. Gox exchange in 2014.

Despite the intervening years, Coincheck and other significant losses in 2018 highlight how fundamental weaknesses in exchanges and wallets have yet to be overcome. By July 2018, major cryptocurrency losses from exchanges exceeded $770 million.

But these figures are only part of the picture: smaller losses, like the $3.3 million lost from Indian exchange Coinsecure, push actual losses significantly higher than the estimated $770 million highlighted.

And this trend looks set to continue in the second half of the year.  In July, Israeli exchange Bancor reporting a loss of $24 million; so, losses for 2018 could easily top $1 billion by year’s end.

However, with Bitcoin’s 10th anniversary approaching, it is reasonable to wonder why, after a relatively long time in digital years, exchanges and associated technologies like digital wallets, appear to remain so vulnerable.

In many ways, the technical, decentralised nature of cryptocurrencies may explain why overcoming these challenges is and will be difficult.  While improved security and better regulation may have helped avoid or limit many of the hacks outlined above, these concepts are largely anathema to the libertarian philosophy underpinning cryptocurrencies.

Improve exchanges security

The original Bitcoin white paper and earlier cryptocurrency concepts proposed by people like Nick Szabo, put security and verification of transactions at the heart of the system.

Blockchain, the foundation of this protection, has since transformed into its own ‘hot’ tech sector even drawing in unlikely players like the Long Island Iced Tea Corporation.

However, despite the security precautions baked into the more reputable currencies themselves, exchanges and digital wallets remain vulnerable due to a range of lax security measures.

These weaknesses range from poorly constructed codebases to single points of failure which thwart other security measures that are in place.  For example, the MT. Gox exchange was riddled with security weaknesses from a poorly constructed and loosely managed codebase to loopholes in transaction management, the flaw which allowed hackers to make off with $450 million.

Meanwhile, attempts to improve the security of exchanges have been at best sloppy or at worst, deliberately misleading.  The Bitfinex exchange was reportedly secured by multi-sign wallets, similar to a physical safe which required two of three different keys to open.

However, this system was easily circumvented by hackers who discovered that instead of three separate keys in different locations, two keys were stored in a ‘hot wallet’ on the Bitfinex servers.  With access to a hot wallet – one accessible via the internet unlike an offline ‘cold’ wallet – hackers easily accessed two keys via a single exploitation. After this, triggering illegal withdrawals was relatively straightforward.

While there may well be outright fraud in the system, security weaknesses generally seem to stem from two issues:  The first one, being the Wild West approach to cryptocurrencies, which are grounded in a mistrust of central regulators.

While the reputable currencies themselves adhere to strict rules and controls, other currencies, exchanges and tools like digital wallets, attract groups and individuals looking to make a quick buck: groups for whom security is almost an afterthought.

This is starkly illustrated by the lax approach many exchanges have to basic IT security measures.

Of the 35 organizations surveyed by Dashlane recently, 70% were found to have basic security flaws in their password management systems.  Some allowing passwords as basic as ‘1234’ or simply ‘a’ leaving user’s accounts “perilously exposed” according to the report.

Passwords are only one facet of online security but Dashlane’s report noted that:

For an industry that prides itself in its cybersecurity innovations, the cryptocurrency exchanges are much weaker when it comes to password security than the average mainstream website.

Dashlane’s Cryptocurrency Exchange Password Power™ Rankings 2018

Given how frequently password vulnerabilities are the root cause of hacks, this weakness is alarming.  Moreover, this lax attitude to passwords likely reflects the overall attitude to security.

The second issue is the complexity of cryptocurrencies and the associated technologies.

Cryptocurrencies owe more to cryptography and advanced math than basic computer science. Layered onto this is the added difficulty posed when conducting financial transactions meaning that cryptocurrencies are significantly more challenging than other start-up sectors.

While the Bitcoin white paper is elegant in its simplicity, the application of these concepts in practice throws up a series of wicked problems which are hard to solve.  This complexity is exacerbated by the shortage of engineers able to tackle these issues meaning that even if there is a willingness to tighten security; exchanges may lack the necessary skills and abilities.

This freewheeling, libertarian mindset and technical complexity is also apparent when it comes to regulating these exchanges.

Faster government regulations response

Born from a distrust of central regulation and fiat currencies, cryptocurrencies are libertarian at heart posing an immediate challenge to the idea of regulation.  Moreover, like any online business, moving location is often a relatively straightforward matter of switching servers to a more permissive jurisdiction.

This has meant that attempts to regulate or licence cryptocurrency firms by states like New York have met significant oppositions and, in some cases, led to the departure of firms.

Compared to the relaxed atmosphere of other locations, such as Switzerland’s canton of Zug, jurisdictions with any forms of regulation will find it difficult to compete as a home for these firms.

However, this opposition to regulation is compounded by the sluggishness on the part of governments to regulate these currencies and exchanges.

Japan’s Financial Services Authority (JFSA) released a report after an assessment of 23 firms finding an overall climate of loose business practices and glaring security flaws.   But the JFSA has been looking at the stability and reliability of crypto exchanges since the MT. Gox hack in 2014.

This makes Coincheck hack in January all the more startling particularly when Japan possibly accounts for as much as 65% of the major losses identified between 2014 and 2018.

Nobuchika-Mori-japan-fsa
Nobuchika Mori, JFSA Commissioner and architect for much of Japan’s policy on cryptocurrency regulation

However, Japan is not alone in its inactions, nor are financial regulators necessarily lagging their counterparts.

Governments worldwide are struggling to adapt and respond to the disruption caused to traditional industries such as transportation and hotels.  When regulation of scooters is a challenge, it is not surprising that dealing with something as complex as cryptocurrencies is time consuming and slow.

Industry-led improvements present an opportunity

Failures on many other disruptive platforms – a shoddy cab ride, bad rental experience or the inconvenience of abandoned scooters – only affect individuals or small groups at a time.  Meanwhile, cryptocurrency exchanges service thousands of consumers and hold billions of dollars in tokens making the repercussions of failure much more widespread.

Moreover, lax exchanges with poor security and anonymity also lend themselves to illicit transactions and money laundering.

These twin issues of consumer protection and the darker side of crypto exchanges servicing illegal online activities would suggest that authorities have a pressing responsibility to reign in and regulate this space.

As with all regulation, many will complain about the burden and cost and some may vote with their feet and substitute New York for Zug.   But despite their libertarian tendencies, reputable operators who already act responsibility should welcome some forms of regulation and improved security standards.

Self-regulation and cooperation with authorities would reward conscientious firms and close out competition from less reputable actors improving the space for consumers, exchanges and the currencies themselves.

This presents an opportunity for reputable actors to become leaders and dominate the space to the advantage of both themselves and consumers.

Esure agrees £1.2bn takeover by private equity Bain Capital

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Bain Capital snaps up Esure, the insurance firm that owns the Sheilas’ Wheels brand, in a £1.2bn takeover deal which suggests further consolidations in the industry.

In a statement, Esure Board said it was pleased to have reached an agreement with Bain Capital on the terms of a recommended cash offer.

As a result and under the terms of the proposed acquisition, each Esure shareholder will be entitled to receive 280p in cash for each Esure share held. This represents a premium of approximately 37% to the closing price per Esure share of 204 pence on 10 August 2018 (this being the last business day prior to the possible offer announcement released by Esure on 13 August 2018)

Chairman Sir Peter Wood, Esure largest shareholder, supported the Bain Capital deal and he is set to earn £371 million from it. Speaking to Reuters, Wood said “It is very good for all my colleagues, all the employees because Bain Capital are going to grow the business and invest heavily,”

He will remain Chairman of the group after the takeover and will reinvest £50 million.

Wood with a £150m investment from Halifax bank launched the online insurer Esure.com during the dot-com boom in 2001. After a management buy-out in 2010, the insurer became an independent company and listed as Esure Group Plc. in London in March 2013 at 290 pence per share.

The company provides insurance products to more than two million homeowners, drivers, holidaymakers, and pet owners across the UK.

Earlier, the insurer released its interim results for the first half year of 2018, which showed pre-tax profits falling 20% from £45.1m to £36.1m.

Darren Ogden, Interim Chief Executive Officer, said: “The first half of 2018 has seen continued growth in premiums and polices in a period impacted by exceptional weather costs … and these contributed to exceptional costs of £14m in the Home and Motor accounts.”

Luca Bassi, managing director of Bain Capital Europe, feels that Esure will grow positively, given its adept and focused way of working, and the way it puts technology to its best use. Insurance providers who operate from advanced technology says Bassi, are in the best position to drive customer satisfaction at competitive prices and that too, at a profit.

Insurance industry in troubles

However, the Esure 20% drop in profits this year is not unique among insurers. In fact, several of them have reported record losses due to an unusual spate of claims because of natural calamities and a series of regulatory updates and effects of Solvency II, the European Union (EU) initiative to introduce a solvency system better matched to the risks of insurers.

Few others are restructuring their operations by participating in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) with their non-performing or under-performing entities. In October 2017, Bermuda-based AXIS Capital acquired Novae Group in a £478 million ($615m), creating an insurer and reinsurer with $6 billion in gross written premium globally and $2 billion in London, making it a top ten insurer and reinsurer at Lloyd’s of London.

Earlier this year, giant French insurer AXA acquired the XL Group (aka XL Catlin), one of the leading global Property & Casualty commercial lines insurers and reinsurers in a £12 billion ($15.3bn) deal. Under the terms of the transaction, XL Group shareholders received £43.20 ($57.60) per share.

XL reported losses exceeding $1 billion for the 2017 third quarter, blaming natural catastrophe Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria for the results. XL CEO, Mike McGavick revealed that the events had a “significant” impact on XL Group’s financial results for the quarter.

Moody’s, in a report, noted that the insured catastrophe losses in the third quarter of 2017 might turn out to be among the highest in the past two decades. Nonetheless, it added that insurers and reinsurers are sufficiently well capitalized to absorb the losses, albeit depleting their capital reserve.

Consolidations and InsurTech

Low interest rates, EU new regulatory updates such as the GDPR (General Data Protection Regulation), and natural catastrophe events are all contributing to the insurance business cycle downwards phase.

Many governments around the world introduced “Quantitative Easing” (Central banks increasing the money supply) and reduced the interest rates at record lows to fight off the 2008 recession. This affected insurers, who have struggled to make decent returns from the investments they must hold to cover potential claims.

Bermuda-based reinsurer Validus Holdings reported it made a net loss of $250 million for the third quarter of 2017, and further losses during the first quarter of 2018 – due partly to more expenses, an underwriting loss in its insurance segment and a drop in income in the reinsurance division.

American International Group (AIG) eager to re-establish its reputation and to re-enter the Lloyd’s of London insurance market recently finalised the acquisition of Validus Holdings in a $5.56 billion deal.

The adverse business insurance environment has proven difficult for some firms to generate enough money to invest in technology innovations or upgrades, and acquisitions on their own. Hence, the current dynamics suggest more consolidations to come.

If not consolidations then the remarkable insurance technology (InsurTech) trend has the potential to disrupt and worry many insurance players. InsurTech has seen a phenomenal growth and is already impacting insurers around the world.

By taking advantage of new technologies to provide coverage to more digitally savvy customer base, technology-led companies enter the insurance sector and proceed to steal the incumbents’ customers.

InsurTech is what Esure did during the dot-net boom; it used the then-nascent internet to streamline the process of buying car and home insurance, and passing on those savings to careful and responsible customers.

The Bain Capital investment offers Esure the opportunity to do it again, disrupting the insurance market.

Chairman Peter Wood said “As a private company and with Bain Capital’s backing, Esure will be able to invest behind the innovation required to fully realise the opportunities in this market. I am pleased to be continuing as Chairman and am fully aligned with Bain Capital, who I believe will be a tremendous partner in the next phase of Esure’s journey.”

Smartphones greatly increase auto accidents risk

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Smartphones have become one of the greatest risks for auto insurers. Analysts blame mobile devices for a sharp increase in motor vehicle accidents in the United States.

America’s motor vehicle accident rate increased by 5% between 2011 and 2016, the National Council on Compensation Insurance (NCCI) calculated. The volume of workers’ compensation claims fell by 17.6% during the same period.

Smartphones are the likely cause, around 27% of US motor accidents involved phone use. Smartphone caused crashes are 12% more likely to involve a fatality, the NCCI claimed.

Vehicle accident risk is exploding

Disturbingly, those statistics might be an undercount. “There is strong evidence to support that underreporting of driver cell phone use in crashes is resulting in a substantial underestimation of the magnitude of the public safety threat,” the National Safety Council declared.

The frequency of auto accidents and the number of auto accident claims have increased since 2011. Not coincidently, the percentage of smartphone owners rose from 27% to 81% between 2016.

Financial risks to auto insurers are increasing because smartphone-related accidents cause more injuries. Auto accident claims are 80% to 100% higher than average compensation claims because of severe injuries.

Smartphones are increasing insurers’ costs

Vehicle accidents made up 28% of claims over $500,000 (£391,973), the NCCI discovered. In contrast, claims over $500,000 accounted for just 5% of all accidents.

American auto accidents are more expensive because the nation lacks National Health Insurance. Therefore, private insurers must cover all the medical costs of most accidents.

The fatality rate from auto accidents is 12 times greater than other accidents. Moreover, a vehicle accident is more likely to result in a costly death claim or lawsuit.

The NCCI expects the growing smartphone risk to increase the cost of insuring individuals in some professions. Accident risks for lorry drivers, cab drivers, salespeople, and delivery drivers increased because of smartphones.

The NCCI’s findings indicate that risks from vehicle accidents will increase for the foreseeable future. Disturbingly other data corroborates the NCCI’s findings.

Road traffic accidents have exploded worldwide in recent years, the Population Reference Bureau (PRB) calculated. Traffic accidents are now the leading cause of accidental death and a significant cause of ill-health.

Vehicle accidents cause 1.2 million deaths and 50 million injuries globally each year, the PRB estimated. Disturbingly, those figures will get far worse.

And if present trends continue, road traffic injuries are predicted to be the third-leading contributor to the global burden of disease and injury by 2020,” the PRB warned. Unfortunately, the PRB did not include smartphones in its calculations.

Traffic fatalities in the United States increased by 5.6% between 2015 and 2016, the National High Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) discovered. Interestingly, the NHTSA blamed reckless behaviour, such as drunkenness, speeding, and lack of seat-belt use, rather than smartphones for the increase.

The number of distracted deaths decreased by 2.2% during 2016, NHTSA data indicates. Therefore, the smartphone danger might be exaggerated.

Future of traffic accident risk

Vehicle accident risks and costs to insurers will increase for the foreseeable future. Technologies like smartphones are magnifying the risks by increasing the distractions available to drivers.

Insurers will pay more traffic claims and those claims are likely to be greater in coming years. Consequently, many insurers will reduce their exposure to traffic accidents by exiting that business. Other insurers will trim risks by offering specialized auto insurance and leaving specific markets.

Higher-accident risks will be problematic for American auto insurers. The largest US vehicle insurers, such as GEICO, use a discount marketing model based on low rates. Increased risks might make such rates unprofitable.

The mitigation of smartphone risks will be difficult for insurers. Solutions like cell-phone blocking in vehicles will be unpopular and hard to implement. Enforcement of laws against texting and driving is difficult. Monitoring policyholders’ in-car phone usage would be difficult and potentially illegal.

Ironically, technology in the form of autonomous vehicles is the most promising solution. Unfortunately, widespread adoption of self-driving vehicle technology is probably several years off.

Therefore, insurers should expect dramatic increases in vehicle-claims and pay-outs for the foreseeable future. Auto insurance may no longer be the lucrative segment it once was.

Federal Reserve proposes changes to its money transfer system Fedwire

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United States’ central bank, the Federal Reserve System, has proposed a major change to its venerable credit-transfer service Fedwire.

The Fed wants to adopt the ISO 20022 Messaging format for the Fedwire Funds Transfer Service. A press release indicates that the Fed’s Board of Governors is taking comments on the proposed change right now.

The ISO 20022 is an international standard for financial messages designed to standardize and simplify the process. Adopting ISO 20022 would make it easier and cheaper for Fedwire customers to make transactions outside the United States.

One of the world’s oldest funds transfer systems

Fedwire, or the Federal Reserve Wire Network, is one of the world’s electronic-funds transfer systems. The Fedwire began as a telegraphic system back in 1915. Over the years the system was upgraded to Telex, and eventually to a computer network.

Today’s Fedwire Funds Service provides same-day transactions to government agencies, banks, and banks that have Federal Reserve Bank master accounts. Fedwire is used to settle commercial payments, settle positions between financial institutions, complete clearing arrangements, pay US federal taxes, and buy and sell federal funds.

Every Fedwire transaction is processed individually and settled immediately and finally upon receipt. The Fedwire depends upon a highly-secure electronic network that connects thousands of members. The Fedwire operates for 21.5 hours every business day (Monday through Friday). Funds are processed in Eastern Standard (New York) time.

The Fedwire is critical to America’s banking system because it ensures liquidity for banks, businesses, and government agencies. By having access to Fedwire, those institutions have continuous access to the Fed and money.

Fedwire joins the world

The Fedwire currently operates on a proprietary messaging standard that limits connectivity with institutions outside the United States.

Currently, institutions might have to join Fedwire to settle payments to, or receive funds from, the Fed. Adding ISO 20022 would give institutions all over the world the capability to settle Fedwire transactions on a same-day basis.

The ISO 20022 adoption would give foreign banks and financial institutions greater access to the American market. Fedwire is one of the two main large-volume payment systems operating in the United States.

This would increase business opportunities, but it would increase the exposure of American banks to troubles overseas. An unintended side effect of America’s adoption of ISO 20022 might be more exposure to liquidity crises at foreign banks.

If the Board of Governors approves it, the Fedwire would adopt ISO 20022 in three phases between 2020 and 2023. The Federal Reserve has been examining the possibility of utilizing ISO 20022 since 2012.

World’s central banks are increasing connectivity

The Fedwire ISO 20022 proposal is the latest effort to increase connectivity among the world’s financial institutions and central banks. Many of the efforts involve cryptocurrency and blockchain.

Leading the way is the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), which has set up a Digital Currency Research Lab. The Lab applied for 41 cryptocurrency and blockchain technologies in its first year of operation.

The PBOC’s governor Zhou Xiaochuan thinks a national digital currency is inevitable in China, The China Daily reported. Despite that Zhou is not in a rush to adopt a digital coin, he apparently fears the effects cryptocurrency bubbles might have on the wider economy.

Consequently, the PBOC has attempted to ban private cryptocurrencies in China while researching an official one. Zhou confirmed reports that the PBOC has set up an institute to develop a national cryptocurrency.

The Federal Reserve is planning to issue a paper that will reveal its official position on cryptocurrency. Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh has been promoting FedCoin a cryptocurrency issued by the Federal Reserve, according to The New York Times. It is not clear if Warsh’s proposal has official support.

Central bankers are interested in blockchain because that technology would theoretically allow the extension of same-day payment settlement systems like Fedwire to ordinary citizens. That would enable governments to distribute welfare benefits, pensions, basic income, or emergency funds directly to everybody.

Banks developing blockchain based settlement systems

There are some private efforts to develop a blockchain-settlement solution for central banks. These experiments include BABB (the Bank Account Based Blockchain) an Ethereum-based cryptocurrency and blockchain platform. BABB even bills itself as a blockchain solution for central banks.

A different approach is being tried by the Utility Settlement Coin (USC) and the Hyperledger Project. Both USC and Hyperledger are trying to develop blockchain-based settlement services that will directly connect major banks. The USC is being developed by a consortium that includes the Bank of New York-Mellon and UBS.

Hyperledger is backed by IBM and includes Deutsche Bank, Bank of New York Mellon, and HSBC. The banks are interested in the blockchain because it theoretically offers a far higher level of encryption and security than competing technologies.

Unfortunately, blockchain is much slower, and far less capacity than existing transfer systems. Existing blockchain technologies like Ethereum and Bitcoin can only process less than 20 transactions a second. The limited capacity of today’s blockchains would make it impossible to process the volume of settlements central banks require.

Despite the limitations, solutions like the blockchain and ISO 20022 have the potential to greatly increase connectivity between financial institutions. Insurers should pay attention because increased bank connectivity can increase risks to the financial system – such as the possibility of liquidity crises.

Amazon discreet ambitions to disrupt the insurance industry

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Amazon appears to be on the cusp of its long-anticipated entrance into the insurance industry – and markets appear nervous.

Shares in insurance companies wobbled in June following a report that the online retailer was considering adding home insurance. The insurance offering would be in combination of its connected home devices.

However, although this is a clear indication of where and how Amazon might enter the market, the company remains silent about its future plans leaving competitors to guess where its full effects might be felt.

Amazon has expanded well beyond its early iteration as an online alternative to brick-and-mortar book and music stores.  Through Amazon.com and a range of other brands, the online retailer now accounts for 44% of online sales and 4% of all retail sales in the US.

The common element is that each brand or offering, even cloud computing AWS (Amazon Web Services) and streaming media, sticks to Amazon’s main intent.

“We strive to offer our customers the lowest prices possible through low everyday product pricing and shipping offers, and to improve our operating efficiencies so that we can continue to lower prices for our customers. We also provide easy-to-use functionality, fast and reliable fulfilment, and timely customer service.”

From Amazon’s 2017 Annual Report

The question is, will financial and insurance products be the next set of items you can add to your cart?

Amazon Finance or Amazon Insurance?

As Amazon has grown, the potential for the company to expand even farther into areas such as finance and insurance has been an increasing concern.  Alex Rampell, general partner at Andreessen Horowitz, described Amazon as the “most formidable” of the tech companies who might enter the sector.

“If Amazon can get you lower-debt payments or give you a bank account, you’ll buy more stuff on Amazon.”

Alex Rampell, general partner at Andreessen Horowitz

So far, Amazon’s financial offerings differ little from other retailers, many of which offer store-branded credit cards, layaway plans or other forms of consumer credit.

Due to its role as a reseller or storefront for smaller brands, Amazon also has a small loans program, backed by Bank of America, which makes loans to small businesses who sell through the Amazon site.

These are relatively modest steps but Amazon may be quietly establishing a beachhead into the financial industry which could have extensive repercussions.

While Amazon quietly expands its financial offerings, insurance seems to be where the retailer is preparing for a much more active role.  Several key developments over the last 18-24 months indicate that this effort is well underway.

First, the company introduced Amazon Protect, point of sale product insurance offered to consumers at check out.  Amazon Protect launched in the UK and rolled out in selected European markets in 2016.


Amazon Protect explainer by Loop Films

Similar to its financial offerings, point of sale product insurance is a relatively standard retail practice, particularly where technology or white goods are concerned.  Nevertheless, this was the company’s first foray into insurance and, for a firm adept at gathering and analysing consumer data, will no doubt have provided valuable insights into consumer behaviour.

The company’s second step towards becoming an insurance provider was Amazon’s partnership with US home construction firm Lennar.  Under this arrangement, smart home devices provided by Amazon were placed into the developer’s model homes. Linked to Amazon’s Alexa AI system, these smart devices could control thermostats and lighting but also doorbells and alarm systems.

This addition of safety and security devices raised concerns that Amazon was going to use these as a springboard into home insurance.

Third, the company announced a partnership with JP Morgan and Berkshire Hathaway to tackle issues concerning the provision of healthcare in the US.

“JPMorgan Chase, along with our partners Amazon and Berkshire Hathaway, recently formed a joint venture that we hope will help improve the satisfaction of our healthcare services for our employees (that could be in terms of costs and outcomes) and possibly help inform public policy for the country. The effort will start very small, but there is much to do, and we are optimistic.”

Jamie Dimon, CEO JP Morgan in the company’s 2017 Letter to Shareholders

Ostensibly a move to improve delivery of healthcare to the three companies’ combined workforce of over 1 million staff, this partnership set off a wave of speculation that the initiative might become something much bigger.

Buffett, Bezos and Dimon have stressed that they are focussed on their own staff and even a million people is a tiny fraction of the hundreds of millions in the US who require health coverage. Nevertheless, this partnership added fuel to the fire of speculation surrounding Amazon’s ambitions.

Finally, the clearest sign of its intentions are the reports that Amazon is investing in InsurTech and aggressively hiring from that sector. Amazon invested $15.7 million in Indian InsurTech firm Acko in early 2018 as part of an agreement which positioned Amazon be the distributor for Acko’s insurance products in India.

Aggressive recruitment campaigns targeting InsurTech staff from firms like Lemonade are another indicator that the company is looking at ways to apply its existing technological and data advantage to the insurance sector.

Many advantages but significant challenges remain

With these signs that Amazon is firmly set on entry into the insurance sector, it is worth considering the pros and cons for the firm as it makes this move.

Firstly, the company enjoys high levels of customer satisfaction and trust.  While this is a core value of the firm, achieving consistently high ratings is difficult.  As Jeff Bezos himself puts it, the company faces “divinely discontent” customers.

“Their expectations are never static – they go up…People have a voracious appetite for a better way, and yesterday’s ‘wow’ quickly becomes today’s ‘ordinary’.”

Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s Letter to Shareholders 2018.

However, unlike dissatisfaction with a faulty toaster, a poor experience buying an insurance policy, and more importantly problems making a claim, will have much wider repercussions. Maintaining such high levels of satisfaction with something as complex as insurance will be challenging.

Secondly, Amazon collects “a mountain of data…to build up a “360-degree view” of you as an individual customer”, data which should help actuarial calculations and consumer targeting.  Triggering an offer to add a child to your life insurance policy when you order onesies for a new-born is in many ways no different to suggesting that you also buy diapers and formula.

This ability to seamlessly add insurance products to other transactions is the third and possibly greatest of Amazon’s advantages.

A key differentiator for Amazon compared to other firms is that consumers already have financial relationship with Amazon.  Contrast this to Google or Facebook. Both firms hold immense amounts of consumer data, probably more than Amazon, and despite people’s grumbling about privacy, these services remain popular with users.  However, it is businesses which have transactional relationships with Google and Facebook whereas everyone with an Amazon account will have at least considered making a purchase on the site.

So, while social media firms may hold more data and be more visible to consumers, it is Amazon’s transactional relationship that gives it a clear advantage when it comes to making sales.

Finally, Amazon is a technology company and one willing to tackle complex technical challenges such as web-services and streaming entertainment.  While the practical challenges of providing insurance will be significant, the company has already solved many of the technical issues associated with serving an enormous customer base online.  Adding InsurTech expertise to this foundation gives the firm a real competitive advantage.

This is not to say that everything will be plain sailing for the firm, despite these strengths.

Insurance is a very different product from DVDs, books and electronics so customers may still experience some dissonance if auto insurance pops up as a recommended buy.  Moreover, insurance by its very nature adds exposure to the company increasing both financial and reputational risks. Finally, Amazon will have to tackle the issue of approvals and licensing from the countries and states where it wants to offer insurance.

At times, Amazon has had a contentious relationship with several states and its hometown of Seattle.  However, unlike skirmishes over corporate taxes, Amazon will have less heft with local authorities if it seeks approval as an insurer.  Anyone slighted previously, or those worried about local ‘mom-and-pop’ insurers, may be less inclined to approve Amazon’s application.

Even with these headwinds, Amazon’s sheer size, customer loyalty and technical know-how will make it a daunting player in the financial and insurance sectors.  Its entry to both markets has been careful and discreet but the repercussions are likely to be significant and, in the case of insurance, may be felt sooner rather than later.

Deutsche Bank moves euro clearing operations as Brexit risks mount

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Germany’s biggest bank, Deutsche Bank has shifted an important part of its euro clearing business to Frankfurt from London due to Brexit. The move is unlikely to affect jobs – the work still exists – the bank will only be doing it differently.

Earlier this year, the bank had announced its intention to slash over 7,000 roles in cost-cutting efforts, but evidently, this has not happened yet.

The change, as reported to the Financial Times (FT) by a company spokesman, is being seen as a victory in the Deutsche Bank’s attempt to get a more significant share of the euro clearing market. It is currently dominated by the London Stock Exchange.

Following the Brexit vote, contenders such as the Eurex Clearing, part of Deutsche Börse Group, have been making attempts to steal London’s crown. French finance minister Bruno Le Maire had previously suggested that Brexit could provide eurozone member states a means to gain control of the clearing business.

The fight against London’s financial sector supremacy has always been an ongoing battle. A serious blow occurred when it lost dominance in the trading of German government bonds to the Frankfurt-based Deutsche Terminboerse (DTB), Eurex’s ancestor.

Using technology, innovation and close cooperation between different parties within the sector, Eurex is now the second biggest euro clearing house and holds a market share of roughly 8 percent.

Hubertus Väth, managing director of consultancy group Frankfurt Main Finance, told FT that moving euro clearing to Frankfurt was “…on top of our priority list from the very first day after the Brexit referendum.”

What is euro clearing?

Clearing can be viewed as the “plumbing’ of financial services. In this process, a third-party performs the function of a middleman between a buyer and a seller for financial contracts, where there is an underlying value attached to a share, index, currency or bond.

The role of the clearing house is to provide a central point of access to facilitate simpler and swifter transactions. There is also a percentage of risk, as the clearinghouse bears the cost if a single side of the transaction does not pay up.

As a kind of compensation for bearing that risk, buyers and sellers deposit the money in a dedicated account with the clearing house. The system is designed to reduce the domino-effect in the event of a debt default affecting the entire system. UK clearing houses have a considerable chunk of the market in euros.

Miles Celic, the chief executive of financial services lobby group TheCityUK, tells Sky’s Ian King about euro clearing and its significance in London.

The UK accommodates both the biggest Over-The-Counter (OTC) Euro foreign exchange transactions market and OTC interest rate derivatives market, worldwide. Dealings to the tune of about 1 trillion euros occur in the UK on a daily basis, a considerably larger volume as compared with the 395 billion euros that are dealt with daily in the United States.

Clearing is considered to be an essential ingredient for financial stability. However, Deutsche Bank feels that the fallout of Brexit is threatening this financial stability. It could due to material risks likely to develop in the derivatives market after Brexit. This was pointed out by the Bank of England earlier this year.

Deutsche Bank shifts focus to Europe

The basic mantra of Deutsche Bank seems to a shift of focus from the UK and the world to Europe, in a bid to facilitate reforms that have been long since overdue. New Deutsch Bank CEO, Christian Sewing is impatient to get started, stating, “There’s no time to lose!”

Sewing’s predecessor, John Cryan first initiated Deutsche Bank’s clean-up operation over the last three years. However, Cryan had burdens with a legacy of long-pending issues which bogged him down and prevented him from implementing significant reforms within the organisation.

He was more like a demolition man trying to break up large chunks of the organisation into manageable parts. Now, Christian Sewing has the herculean task of rebuilding the bank from those various fragmented sections.

The new strategy according to Sewing, is to reinforce the bank’s European and German customer base and pull out of areas which have proven to be costlier and riskier. Sewing said that the bank is committed to its international investment banking operations. There is a need to “concentrate on what we truly do well,” he said.

Supporting the Deutsche Bank move, German finance minister, Olaf Scholz in a recent statement stated: “To minimise risk for financial stability, it is indispensable that [the clearing of euro-derivatives] is subject to strong regulation and supervision in full conformity with EU standards.”

Rebuilding lost confidence

There is a similar occurrence taking place in the United States. However, in this case, the context is slightly different. Deutsche Bank, in its attempt to get a slice of the pie along with its US competitors, neglected its domestic private customers and later, even its local corporate customers.

This negligence resulted in an exodus of local Deutsche Bank customers to other banks. Big German companies started going to other banks for financing their mergers and acquisitions, and the bank lost much business due to this unwarranted arrogance on its part.

Now, in a bid to repair the damage caused to its domestic customers, Deutsche Bank wants to focus more on the domestic market, projecting “commitment instead of arrogance.” Although according to Christian Sewing there will be no withdrawal from US business, experts feel that it will eventually happen, but perhaps in instalments.

Experts have compared the presence of Deutsche Bank in the US to Volkswagen’s business operations in that country. Just like the way Volkswagen’s business has declined to a negligible level in the recent years, they feel that Deutsche Bank will perhaps be likely to travel along the same road, maybe finally maintaining a nominal presence there.

The writing on the wall

With the onset of Brexit and recent developments in Deutsche Bank, it becomes apparent that the organisation is going to be conducting business in a very different way in the days to come. It seems that several changes and restructuring of the bank will take place under the new leadership of Christian Sewing.

Like several other banking organisations who have undergone downsizing and streamlining their financial operations, Deutsche Bank has seen the writing on the wall. One lives in times where business is valued if it is profitable; or else, it’s not a business worth having.

Deutsche Bank’s move out of the UK can be interpreted as a step in the right direction, provided that the new leadership can make intelligent decisions according to the changing times.

New CII Public Trust Index reveals insurers top consumers’ confidence priorities

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The Chartered Insurance Institute (CII) has launched a Public Trust Index that provides the industry with much needed insight into key measures of consumers’ confidence. In order to improve customers’ satisfaction, insurers require a better understanding of the opinions of insurance buyers.

The survey comprised of in-depth interviews with industry regulators and public bodies, in addition to consumers and SMEs (Small Medium Enterprises), supports the industry shift from a structural focus on the premiums to developing customer relationships through value and trust.

Accordingly, confidence in insurers was the leading priority whereas premiums were a low priority. Confidence in insurers is followed by easy buying process (70%) and good protection from the insurance product (68%).

The Index has also revealed gaps in areas of importance to consumers and their perception of industry performance in these areas. The performance gap is largest for rewarding customer loyalty at 13% followed by an easy buying process and good protection from the insurance product with 7% gap, respectively.

The industry challenge is to improve trust by closing these gaps between consumers’ expectations and industry performance. The biggest hurdle is addressing the lack of perceived loyalty. The large performance gap reflects consumer discontent with the practice of insurers charging new customers lower prices but raising the renewal price for existing customers, known as dual pricing.

Dual pricing under the spotlight

Under the current controversial practice of dual pricing, customers pay a higher price in return for loyalty to insurance providers. Since new customers are offered more attractive pricing to sign up for new insurance products, long-term customers pay more for their insurance – in effect, subsidizing the discounted pricing.

This pricing regime sends faulty market signals by penalizing insurance buyers in the form of higher prices for long-term customer loyalty.

If competition is working well in a market, it should not overly disadvantage existing customers over new customers,” states the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) Business Plan 2018/2019, which has made tackling dual pricing a priority.

Since April 2017, the FCA has sought to ensure fairer pricing by requiring insurers to list the previous year’s premium alongside renewal offers.

While consumers are lowering their premiums by shopping around, prices are still far from being equalized. Consumers can get better pricing by taking their insurance business elsewhere.

In the second year of a home insurance policy with the same insurance provider, a consumer can save £45 on a home insurance policy by switching providers, according to Consumer Intelligence. In the ninth year, the savings jumps to £124.

Broker relationship matters most

Small and medium businesses value, before all, the broker advisor relationship. As with consumers, however, this trust has been breached by the practice of employing dual pricing.

The prospect of subsidizing the insurance of competitors is an even more contentious issue in the business insurance market. To the contrary, SMEs seeking to reduce business expenses expect insurers to offer a higher value proposition through loyalty discounts, for example, as well as policy extras and no claims bonuses.

Furthermore, small businesses value protection at reasonable costs, claims processing facilitated with ease and speed, and complaints handled efficiently.

Overall, the survey found that the claims process boosted confidence for insurers. Most consumers reported satisfaction with a claims process that was handled quickly (74%), respectfully (70%) and with the control of the policyholder in the process (68%).

Policyholders’ loyalty, however, can easily be betrayed on a technicality. Such was the anguishing case of a homeowner who lost his five-bedroom house in a fire as recounted by James Daley upon receiving the CII Consumer Champion Award.

In his speech, Daley tells how the insurance company rejected the homeowner’s claim when his house burnt down. “The house had 5 bedrooms – and 2 attic rooms which had not been completed according to buildings regulations. When the house burned down, the insurer told the customer that his house had 7, not 5 bedrooms, and because they didn’t cover 7 bedroom properties, they wouldn’t pay a penny of his claim. Worse still, the Ombudsman agreed.”

Social media has become a critically important channel for customer service and feedback. A bad insurance claim story like this can go viral and can jeopardize the insurer and the whole industry’s reputation.

One way for the insurance industry to address its reputational issues, concludes the report, is to step up to the challenge of becoming partners in risk management with its customers. As a provider of risk management solutions beyond insurance, the industry will be incentivized to create more value for customers through innovative risk management products.

Google business model under siege in Europe after record fine

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A record fine from the European Commission (EC) might force Alphabet to change its business model. The Commission’s actions reveal that the risk of antitrust actions has greatly increased in Europe.

The business model for Alphabet’s popular Android operating system for wireless devices is an illegal practice that violated antitrust laws, an EC press release charges. Alphabet has 90 days to change how Android operates or it will face a fine of €4.34 billion (£3.87 billion).

The Commission found that Alphabet leveraged its position as the dominant search engine operator to become the dominant smartphone operating system provider. Alphabet achieved this by bundling the Google search engine, the Play Store, and the Google Chrome browser into Android, global law firm Linklaters revealed.

Alphabet systematically violated antitrust laws

Alphabet’s antitrust violations included requiring manufacturers to pre-install Google Chrome, and the Play Store in phones. That made those products the first choice of customers and discouraged the use of rival operating systems.

That gave those apps an unfair advantage over competing products. The commission also singled out payments Alphabet made to manufacturers that exclusively pre-installed the Google Search app. Another practice criticised was Alphabet’s efforts to prevent manufacturers from installing its apps on devices running alternative versions of Android.

Risks created by the antitrust actions are far greater than many people assume because they have the potential to disrupt the entire industry. A similar action against Microsoft in 1998 effectively destroyed that company’s software dominance.

Antitrust dispute could end Android

In 1998, Microsoft was bundling Internet Explorer to its Windows products. The US Justice Department blocked the practice, which helped open the door for Google’s entry into the search engine market.

There are some key differences, in 1998, Microsoft was selling software. Alphabet is effectively giving away Android and generating revenue by selling data. Critics charge that the EC’s action would force Alphabet to charge licenses for Android which would increase costs to consumers.

Strangely, Android-bundling is a good deal for consumers because they receive a wide variety of solutions pre-installed. The bundling violated antitrust laws because competing products were not given the same choice.

An obvious risk is that manufacturers would replace Android solutions with cheaper, inferior, products. Another would be chaos in the marketplace because Chrome accounts for up to 60% of the browser market share and 90% of the searches.

Losers would be consumers who would lose the convenience of pre-installed apps and might have to pay for solutions that are currently free. Smaller software providers might profit in the long run by getting more access to phone and tablet screens.

Alphabet’s limited choices

Alphabet is faced with three choices in this case. It can fight the fine, by appealing to the courts. Try to comply with the antitrust ruling by changing its business practices in the EU. Or try to work out some sort of deal with the European Commission.

The third alternative is the most likely because it would be easiest. A probable outcome would be for Alphabet to pay the fine and enter into an agreement to partially comply with the antitrust rules.

Alphabet can easily pay the fine it had $102.855 billion (€87.85 billion) in cash and short-term investments on 31 March 2018. Beyond that, it would not cost Alphabet very much to simply pre-install another browser, such as Opera, in Android phones.

The danger to Alphabet from that move would be giving Opera a chance to steal data and advertising revenue. The current Google business model is to sell the data generated from searches. Allowing competitors equal access would theoretically give them a chance to capture some of that data.

The most likely outcome of the antitrust moves is that Alphabet will have to provide an opening for potential competitors in Android. Whether one of those competitors will be able to capture a large percentage of Alphabet’s business is unknown.

The risk to advertisers and software providers is a totally disrupted market with new players. Unfortunately, it is not clear if those players exist and if they would have the resources to take advantage of the opportunities created by the European Commission.

Most valuable global insurance brand 2018 is …

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China leads and dominates the global insurance ranking in a recently published Kantar Millward Brown’s 2018 Brandz report.  The Brandz™ report tracks the value of the world’s most valuable brands and ranks them into a range of categories.

This year, the report shows that Ping An, China Life and AIA Insurance grabbed the top spots on the list with a combined total brand value of $57.70 billion (£44 billion), following an average record of 33% growth – besides, accounting for almost 58% of the value of all ten firms listed.

This dominance underlines the surge in China’s insurance industry in both growth and market size.

The Brandz™ report draws research from “over 3.6 million consumer interviews and more than 120,000 different brands in over 50 markets” making it a comprehensive survey of a business’s economic strength and the resonance of the brand in the eyes of consumers. While including consumer perception of a brand arguably adds a degree of subjectivity to the ranking, the basis in hard market values ensures that the Brandz™ rankings combine style and substance.

Ping An not only topped the list of insurers, but the firm has also climbed in the overall Brandz™ ranking to break into the top 50 brands at number 43.

Ranking reflects Chinese insurers’ dominance

This rise illustrates the dominance of China in the global insurance market driven by a growing middle class and rising GDP.  In addition to the top three Chinese-based firms, the ranking includes few US companies such as State Farm, Geico, and Progressive representing 22% market share of all the ten insurers. European insurers represented by German Allianz, French AXA and UK Prudential are very close behind their American counterparts with a 20% market share.

Again, these numbers reflect the overall state of the global insurance industry where emerging markets, particularly in the China-led Asian region, are growing significantly faster than older, more mature markets in Europe and the USA.  This growth seems to closely track GDP growth where China with almost 7% GDP growth significantly outpaces the US and Eurozone, both tied at around 2%.

In addition to the benefits of projected steady GDP growth, China’s financial sector may be about to experience another surge.

As a counterpoint to US trade restrictions against China, Beijing is considering further relaxation of controls on foreign companies’ operations in the $42 trillion Chinese financial sector.  This opportunity may pose a challenge for American firms but will be a welcome chance for expansion for European companies looking to escape sluggish growth at home.

However, despite the promise of riches that China offers, the market is not without significant risk.

Not all plain sailing

First, fraud and corruption remain a major concern.  Despite the Chinese government’s moves to reign in corruption, it seems to be struggling to keep up.  In addition to trying to purge the system of bad actors, the government also had to pump much-needed cash into firms that have suffered losses. This places a strain on both public funds and investors’ confidence.

Nevertheless, the prosecution of Anbang’s Chairman suggests a genuine attempt to tighten up on fraud and the Chinese regulator is also showing a proactive stance.  For example, in a recent report Swiss Re noted that when it comes to the government’s attitude towards InsurTech, despite a “generally supportive regulatory environment”, the Chinese regulator is “becoming more cautious about the potential risks posed by InsurTech, and is believed to be drafting rules to tighten monitoring of internet lending, payments and insurance”.

Secondly, shadow banking still remains a concern.  With an off-the-books banking system estimated at around 30% of the size of the formal market, regulators are concerned about the potential for this informal system to disrupt the whole financial sector.

A decade after America’s financial meltdown, largely in part to worthless paper underpinning large parts of the financial sector, the dangers posed by informal and unsecured investments are not lost on Beijing. Nevertheless, this potential for instability should be part of anyone’s calculation when considering the Chinese market.

Finally, the question of how long China’s market can continue to grow remains unknown.  As US and European firms know, there is a saturation point beyond which it becomes increasingly difficult to grow.

New forms of business, such as the gig-economy, present opportunities to reach new customers as do ‘pay-as-you-go’ InsurTech products.  But the core of insurance remains rooted in the traditional offerings of personal life and property insurance and commercial policies.

Similar to how growth for European and US firms is slowing as opportunities tighten, Chinese operators may follow suit over time, particularly if wealth remains largely concentrated in affluent urban areas. Nevertheless, exactly when this growth will slow is unknown and this is the key question that all China-watchers are asking themselves.

Europe and US eye East

Despite China’s rise, European and US firms are far from done for and continue to look for new ways to reach customers.  Companies are increasingly trying to differentiate themselves from the competition with clever, catchy ads or innovative products.  Meanwhile, InsurTech firms are offering consumers completely new ways to buy insurance.

No matter what other innovations competitors come up, China seems set to continue to dominate the insurance sectors for the foreseeable future.  And with billions of dollars of investment pouring into the Chinese fintech sector, the country could be set to continue to dominate for many years to come.

Aviva discloses how many claims it pays

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Aviva apparently paid 96% of the claims it received in the United Kingdom in 2017. Data from the company’s UK claims reports indicates just 4% of claims were rejected.

Aviva UK paid 961,973 claims valued at £3.6 billion across its commercial and individual lines in 2017. The pay outs included auto, home, travel, health, and business policies, Cover Magazine noted.

Aviva’s claims-payment rate was higher than the industry average, The Financial Times observed. The Financial Conduct Authority estimated that between 92% and 94% and of home-insurance claims result in payment. Aviva UK reportedly paid 95% of its home-insurance claims.

These figures did not include the £327 million Aviva UK paid out in personal protection claims in 2017. Aviva paid 97.2% of its personal protection claims in the United Kingdom last year.

One in 10 travel insurance claims rejected

Aviva UK’s highest rejection rates were for income protection and travel insurance claims.

The company rejected nearly 10% of those claims. The high claims-rejection rate is raising concerns that such policies are too complex for average consumers.

The most common reasons for claims rejections were items outside of policy, lack of additional coverage, and failure to meet the claim definition, an Aviva press release indicates. Failure to report pre-existing health conditions and lifestyle choices was also a major reason for claim denial.

The press release indicates a few policyholders were unfamiliar with the terms of their policies. Many claims were apparently rejected because consumers were confused about coverage.

Many of the refused claims were for items that would have been covered by add-ons. Policyholders failed to buy the add-ons because they did not know they needed them.

This indicates that Aviva UK needs to improve its education efforts for policyholders. Better communication between the insurer and the insured is also required.

Insurance policies too hard to read

Consumers may have been confused by the policies because they were too long. Claims rates were higher for business insurance policies that contained more than 269 words.

The higher pay-out rates for personal protection and home claims indicate that those policies are easier to read. Recent research from KPMG indicates that some business-insurance policies can take up to two hours to read.

Renters’ policies are apparently easier to read. KPMG found that it takes one hour to read a typical home-renters policy.

Aviva claims details

Aviva’s 2017 claims report provides some interesting details about its UK operations. Details that stand out include:

  • Aviva paid for repairs on 120,000 vehicles in 2017.
  • Aviva paid £10 worth of claims each day in 2017
  • Aviva paid an average of £7,000 in claims a minute in 2017.
  • Around received 240,493 digital claims from UK policyholders in 2017.
  • That means 25% of Aviva’s UK claims are now transmitted digitally.

Aviva Settled 99% of its motor insurance claims

  • Aviva settled 99.3% of its motor insurance claims in 2017.
  • Aviva settled 347,035 motor insurance claims in 2017.
  • Aviva settled 95.2% of its home-insurance claims in 2017.
  • Aviva settled 89.3% of its travel insurance claims in 2017.
  • Aviva settled 87,609 home insurance claims and 99,532 travel insurance claims in 2017.

Commercial property insurance

  • Aviva settled 98% of its commercial motor insurance claims in 2017.
  • Aviva settled 152,734 commercial motor insurance claims in 2017.
  • Aviva settled 93.6% of its commercial property insurance claims in 2017.
  • Aviva settled 38,058 commercial property claims in 2017.

Aviva pays a high rate of claims

The high rate of payments extended to life and medical insurance.

Aviva paid 98.9% of the life insurance claims it paid in 2017. The company paid 16,314 life insurance claims for £525.514 million.

Aviva also paid £337,394 million to settle 4,413 critical illness claims, a payment rate of 93.2%. The company paid £36.394 million to settle 3,918 income protection claims, a paid rate of 88.8%.

For private medical insurance Aviva UK paid 94.1% of claims received. It cost Aviva around £404.838 million to settle 206,037 private medical claims.

Group protection claims cost Aviva £327.749 million in 2017. Aviva was able to pay 92.5% or 5,534 of the group protection claims it received.

Fracture claims were one of the smallest coverage areas at Aviva. The company paid just 789 or 94.1% of them for £1.687 million.

The rate of payment indicates that most Aviva policyholders understand their policies and the claims process. Aviva appears to have achieved a high rate of efficiency in its UK operations.